Statecraft 401: Advanced Problems in Acting On The World Stage

As I type, I am mildly uncomfortable. The old furnace is gone. The old air conditioner is gone. The old water heater is on its way out. Ergo, there is neither heat nor water in my house. In the great scheme of things, this is a minor inconvenience. The new furnace has been moved into place. The new air conditioner is on the cement pad outside the garage. The new water heater is just coming off the truck. They will all be installed and reattached by dinner time. I will be warm, with hot water readily available, and if the air conditioner actually gets turned on twice this summer, it will be a lot. 

I realize how intensely lucky I am to be in my home, to be able to afford new heating/cooling equipment, and have running water. But for an accident of family history, I could be in Ukraine or Belarus. I can never lose sight of that. 

Ziggy's favorite mantra

Writing The Wifely Person Speaks has been a weekly challenge for more than a decade. A decade. That's a long time. Sure, I piss and moan some weeks about "making the donuts," but I do it. Some days, I appreciate it more than others. This is true. But that I can do this every Monday, week in/week out, month in/month out, year in/year out is a testament to my fervent belief in freedom of expression.  Writing this blog is, in its own way, a privilege. I get to say what I want, when I want. My blog, my rules. That said, you can agree with me or disagree and I am happy to read your opinions. (Except the death threats. Those I'd prefer not to get.) 

So when I read Putin has cut off Russia from all outside news sources, I get worried. I have a fair number of readers in Russia who will not get to read this episode. I worry about the ones who are hearing about gas weaponry production in Ukraine together with Nazis roaming the streets...both reasons for Russia to race to Ukraine's rescue. Or so the general population is being told. I want to believe someone will get the truth about what's happening in Ukraine into Russia, but I'm not sure it will be enough or in time. Putin is a manipulator, and he's counting on a whole lotta sleight o'hand to get NATO et al to do what he wants. 

That he's accusing Ukraine of manufacturing and planning to use chemical/biological weapons is a great excuse to use them in "defense." He's ranting about Nazis running about Ukraine, yet he's the one pushing for annexation of territories like Crimea was and now he's setting up Donetsk and Luhansk (the Donbas region) the same way. Are the people of those two areas clamoring to be saved by Russia? Not a simple answer. The Washington Post has a pretty good explanation of the schism, but in a nutshell, it comes down to ethnicity:

Still, Putin has repeatedly invoked the idea of Donbas’s distinctive regional identity as a basis to “defend” its Russian-speaking people from a supposedly intolerant Ukraine. Separatists have also capitalized on this identity to fuel support and rebellion against Kyiv.

 

In Kyiv-controlled Donbas, a majority wants the separatist regions to return to Ukraine. In the separatist-controlled area, over half want to join Russia, either with or without some autonomous status, per a survey published in 2021.

Gee, ethnicity. There's a surprise. But these are matters for the population of that region to decide and while Russia is riding in to "help" the separatists, I can't see Putin giving them their own autonomous region. That conflict has already cost over 14,000 lives between Ukraine and Donbas region. While Russia appears to be pulling those strings for the separatists, Putin is, at the same time, attempting to hijack Ukraine's ability to set policy for itself. The interjection of Russia into Ukraine's foreign and domestic policy would not be tolerated by any other country, so why would Zelensky's government be expected to put up with it? 

See, this isn't just Moscow beating up on some kid. This is a complicated and delicate balance within Ukraine that requires chess-like skills. It's not going to be instantly resolved. And frankly, unless you knew there was another "situation" underneath it, you cannot possibly just go all out for one side or the other. Not that I am in any way suggesting that Russia be allowed to continue the bully pulpit it presently occupies. NO WAY.

So, let's look at this from a slightly different angle. 

On Monday's CBS Morning News, retired Lt General H.R. McMasters appeared as a war analyst. Now once upon a time, this guy replaced Michael Flynn as Feckless Leader's National Security Advisor. At the time, I openly wondered if this was a junta in the making. 

So now, McMasters is spouting his own opinions on Ukraine. He's worth listening to, if only for another point of view. He's saying not to take anything off the table, that doing so feeds into Putin's brazen misbehavior. He maintains that the WWIII analogies are not useful; they give Putin a chance to rattle his nuclear sabres in such a way that the US and Nato will be forced to step back. Meanwhile, Putin will continue to interdict the supply chain going into Ukraine, cutting off both military and humanitarian aid. McMasters also thinks this might be laying the groundwork for Russia to use chemical weapons. 

I want to disagree with him, but I'm not sure I can. However...

That said, I suspect McMasters may be looking at this in a rather shallow, superficial analysis. I think he is underestimating the backdoor channel of diplomacy and I think he underestimates Putin as he moves his pieces around the board. Putin is classical Russian and I would venture to guess the guy is a chess player. Maybe not a very good one, but he is thinking maybe 6 or 7 moves ahead. Biden, on the other hand, is not, as FOX suggests, playing checkers. I think Biden might actually be playing the long game, and if he's not a great chess player, he's brought in those that are. Biden's been a politician for a long time. Don't underestimate his ability to know what he can and cannot do himself, what he needs skilled foreign service folks for, and most importantly, how to get the deal done. He's been around too long not to know how to play the ultimate game. Granted, he may not be sparkling brill, but he's savvy enough to know how to get the helpers he needs. 

Meanwhile, no sane government, leader, or alliance wants World War III. Some of the insane ones might, like Putin or Kim Jong Whoever, but most of the world finds the nuclear dick-waving dangerously stupid. Take into consideration whose dick it is, and suddenly you can't just walk up and hand-slap the guy. In his quest NOT to lose face, he is decidedly capable of pressing one or more buttons. Even though he is unlikely to test wind speed and direction prior to pressing said buttons, he may have no qualms about scorched-earth maneuvering if it will guarantee some kind of victory. 

And I am betting this guy has a well stocked bunker ready to go. Dictators always prepare for the worst, and I suspect Vlad the Dictator isn't any different from his predecessors. This guy has a Swiss bank account. He's got to have money stashed wherever he can. The open sewer secret is that he's got digs in Switzerland where, according to the tabloids, he already stashed his mistress, retired gymnast Alina Kabaeva, and their 4 kids. 

Zelensky, on the other hand, is an actor. Probably a very good one. His performance on the world stage is well-crafted, as it should be, and he, too, is playing the long game. I am anxious to see his address to our CongressClowns, the elected gang that cannot possible shoot straight, because Zelensky knows exactly how to address them. 

Yeah, I'm opining all over the place tonight. But I'm still a director; that never goes away. I see refined performance where others see a speech. That was one of the biggest problems with Feckless Leader; he could't stop the aggrandizing ad lib. Zelensky was on that call about Hunter Biden. He listened up close and personal to that narcissistic dingbat, and he immediately had to have recognized that level of bad acting when he heard it. I'm betting Zelensky learned a lot about statecraft from those conversations, and I'm betting he absorbed every last bit of that information. 

He's been coached, I suspect, to keep the focus on him and away from NATO while everyone else is working beneath and behind him to settle Ukraine in a totally defensible position while Putin continues to play the Dictator's Gambit. Zelensky's harangues are always well crafted and hit the emotional high points for greatest impact. But every good actor needs a good director and a great stage manager to make it all work seamlessly when it's live and in person. Zelensky knows this; he leaves nothing to chance. The guy is cagey smart and knows Ukraine's survival depends on playing to his strengths. 

Deus ex machina in the real world. Just watch Servant of the People.  How often do you get to see real life imitating art?

The Wifely Person's Tip o'the Week

If you buy a house with a 20-year-old furnace, 

immediately budget the replacement cost. 

The Junior Son commended me on my fine adulting skills this week.

I'm so proud. 

The Wifely Person's Bonus Observation

The Rolling Stones announced they will start a tour called

SIXTY.

Why? Because they have been together as a band for

60 years. 

That's longer than most marriages...even the ones that last. 

Oh, you might want to know that Mick and Keith were born in 1943

They are currently 78 years old.

Each.

Which means that they will both turn 80 in 2023

yes, EIGHTY 

while they are on tour...with new songs they just wrote.

Why does that alta kaker have brown hair?