The Certainty Trap

1 + 1 = 2

2 x 2 = 4 

100 - 49 = 51

17 is a prime number

WALKED = past tense of WALK 

2 atoms of H + 1 atom of O = H2O (the molecular structure of water)

Are the above posits irrefutable, or part of a certainty trap? 

Can I change the laws of mathematics and science because I personally believe there is a different outcome because I saw something online by someone who saw the same outcomes differently from me? 

I believe, therefore it is?

More and more, the phrase the Certainty Trap is appearing in the op ed columns around is. The phrase attributed to Ilana Redstone, an associate professor of Sociology at the University of Illinois/Urbana-Champaign. Simply explained, the Certainty Trap is the tendency to treat our values, principles or beliefs as inviolable. That if one believes it to be true, it must be true. This is not just found in religious beliefs, but in politics as well, and that's where Tucker Carlson comes in. 

Tucker Carlson has emphatically stated the action on January 6th was a sightseeing adventure gone wrong, even though the live video tells an entirely different story. In my world, anyone with a television or internet access can watch the riot, both inside and outside the Capitol, as it unfolded over and over again. These are facts. There are lots of tapes, recorded phone conversations, not to mention photographs taken by thousands of spectators with smart phones who were sending jubilant updates of the action to friends, family, and Facebook. 

That overwhelming footage was streamed live to a horrified nation cannot be in dispute in the real world. Not so much, however, in Fox World. 

But wait!

Have I just fallen into a certainty trap with that conclusion? Is it possible my so-called facts are actually just as much speculative manipulation as the reporting on FOX? How can I tell whether or not I am ignoring what is real when I believe myself to be processing my version of facts even if I watched it live on television?

Possibly. But not, if you're a bit of a fact-checking pragmatist as I am, not bloody likely.

Certainty does, at some point, become toxic certainty as it's manipulated for public viewing. Last week, Carlson took America through his carefully curated exposé of the sightseeing tour of January 6th, 2021, Tucker Carlson repeatedly harps on the death of Officer Brian Sicknick:

The tape shows very clearly Brian Sicknick walking through the building in apparent health after the media told us for two years that he had been murdered. So, they were wrong about that. Ok. They got caught. Here's the interesting thing. They won't admit it. Liz Cheney's tweet is still on Twitter tonight. "Officer Sicknick was killed defending our Capitol from the violent mob on January 6." No correction. Anderson Cooper of CNN still has not apologized "Officer Brian Sicknick died after being hit [on] the head with a fire extinguisher during the fight," he told us. Those are lies. Why not just admit it and move on? They won't. 

Except they did. On April 19th, 2021, the Washington Post reported on the release of the medical examiner's report that states Officer Sicknick suffered two strokes on January 6th, and the aerosol sprayed on him would not have triggered those strokes. In his report, ME Francisco J. Diaz reported:

Sicknick suffered two strokes at the base of the brain stem caused by a clot in an artery that supplies blood to that area of the body. Diaz said he could not comment on whether Sicknick had a preexisting medical condition, citing privacy laws. 

In the days after the riot, police and a Justice Department official attributed Sicknick’s death to his efforts to contain the riot.  ...

Diaz’s ruling does not mean Sicknick was not assaulted or that the violent events at the Capitol did not contribute to his death. The medical examiner noted Sicknick was among the officers who engaged the mob and said “all that transpired played a role in his condition."

The Capitol Police added that his strokes do not change the fact that he died in defense of the Capitol. 

But Tucker never mentions that the cause of death was corrected and recognized early on as not having been from a blow to the head. Instead, he continues to sell the idea that the Democrats continued to lie about that when they did not. The rest of the footage he shows is so carefully edited and stitched together that he could say whatever he wanted based on video that had been fundamentally altered to show a very different version of the events. He makes the assumption that no one will go back to the original videos as posted that day.

Carlson is kneading the truth, reshaping into something he wants his audience to gasp and grasp while disseminating absolutely untrue information that his audience will spread in a toxic game of telephone. 

It's a game. A dangerous one, but a game all the same. 

Look, I'm not suggesting that Tucker Carlson has a dick to lean on here, but you gotta admit, he's highly skilled and motivated in the art of certainty manipulation. He's mastered this skill. As have lots of his supporters and compatriots. They are unable to refrain from believing anything he puts out there. 

The same principle transfers onto lots of other discussions. Large segments of the evangelical population absolutely believe their particular brand of belief is the ONLY proper way to believe in God. Muslims have similar issues between Sunni and Shiites. Jewish sectarianism tends not to be extreme in the US, but in Israel? Ha! The ultra-religious right have a stranglehold on much of Israel's civil life much to the dismay of most Israelis. Don't believe me? HUGE demonstrations are going on weekly in Israel directed at Netanyahu and his proposed changes to the judicial system. These are just a few examples of certainty traps; that place where only you are right and everyone else is an idiot. 

Tel Aviv ~ Oded Balilty | Credit: AP

Yeah, I'm just as guilty as the next guy when I think about ultra-religious Jews. I cannot normalize them in any way, but I know enough to listen to what they're saying. Understanding their mishugas, their brand of craziness, (IMHO) is the only way I can engage in conversation about it. I cannot combat their propaganda with more slogans; I need to understand what's being said so I can respond to questions I am asked here. They are a part of my world whether I like it or not. And when I am in Israel, they're an even bigger part of the world I would seriously like to drown out. I view them as the ultimate enemy of the STATE of Israel. And yes, I take comfort knowing I'm not alone in that certainty. Secular Israel is out in the streets these days, protesting the direction the government is taking. It's not just kids; young and old alike, including friends my age, are in those crowds. 

When opinions flood mass media without any sort of fact check or verification of validity, the news cycle disseminates the information in a flash, added to that wonderful (snark,snark) habit of people to suck up the news from any particular bubble into their own stream of consciousness bubble so they can vomit it back to their own audience. The certainty trap is enhanced when only information from your bubble spreads to your connected bubbles. That ensures only news and information supporting your beliefs will be valid in your own world. Neither Truth, nor Justice, nor even the American Way have anything whatsoever to do with this formulated reality. 

But here's the kicker...we all fall into the trap one way or another. Keep that in mind the next time you scoff at the perceived enemy. Knowing that you do should help to focus your own reality check now and then. 

Just a thought.

The Wifely Person's Tip o'the Week

Passover is rapidly approaching.

Time to get the non-perishables,

but the hunt for Temptee has commenced.